A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
